Kouzijiao(SH:603589) 阿尔法工场研究院·2026-01-09 00:04Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in the financial performance of Kuaijiao, a Chinese liquor company, with a projected net profit drop of 50% to 60% for the year 2025 compared to the previous year, primarily due to market differentiation and declining demand in the high-end liquor segment [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Kuaijiao expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 662 million to 828 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 828 million to 993 million yuan from the previous year, representing a year-on-year decline of 50% to 60% [5][7]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 645 million to 811 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, which is a reduction of 799 million to 965 million yuan from the previous year, indicating a decline of 49.65% to 59.93% [5][7]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Kuaijiao reported revenue of 3.174 billion yuan, down 27.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 742 million yuan, a decrease of 43.39% year-on-year [7][8]. Product Segment Analysis - High-end liquor sales accounted for 95% of Kuaijiao's total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, with sales revenue of 2.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 27.98% [9][11]. - Mid-range liquor sales were 41 million yuan, down 15.38% year-on-year, while low-end liquor sales increased by 25.09% to 114 million yuan [9][11]. Regional Sales Performance - Kuaijiao's revenue in Anhui province, its home market, fell by 27.24% to 2.587 billion yuan, while revenue from outside the province decreased by 23.93% to 530 million yuan, indicating a more significant decline in the home market [9][12]. Shareholder Activity - Despite the poor performance, Kuaijiao's controlling shareholder, Liu Ansheng, reduced his stake by selling up to 10 million shares in July 2025, amounting to 3.3 billion yuan at a price of 32.92 yuan per share [12][14]. - Following the share reduction, Kuaijiao's stock price experienced a significant drop, falling below 30 yuan per share by December 10, 2025, with an annual decline of nearly 21% compared to an 18.41% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [14][16].