Orient Securities(SH:600958) 券商中国·2026-01-08 23:29Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "sideways fluctuation with slight strengthening" in the first half of 2026, with core opportunities focusing on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the cyclical (chemicals, non-ferrous) and manufacturing (new energy, robotics) sectors [2][3][4]. Market Outlook - The market is currently in an adjustment phase following the bull market of 2025, requiring three key tasks: transitioning from old to new driving forces, switching market hotspots to find new breakthrough directions, and redistributing stock chips to form a trading foundation [3]. - The previous bull market was driven by rising expectations rather than improvements in the real economy, indicating a need to return to observing the real economy for new expectations to form [3][4]. Investment Strategy - The focus for investment should be on mid-cap blue chips, which are characterized by moderate risk, solid performance, and potential for growth. Key sectors include cyclical industries (chemicals, non-ferrous) and manufacturing (new energy, robotics) [4][5]. - The market has shown a polarization trend from April 2023 to November 2025, with funds either flowing into low-risk, high-dividend stocks or chasing high-risk, high-growth tech stocks. This trend is beginning to change, indicating a return of risk appetite towards mid-cap blue chips [4][5]. Sector Insights - In the technology sector, while it remains a long-term focus, a short-term correction is necessary due to previous rapid increases in stock prices [6]. - The A-share market's selection strategy has shifted from performance-based to style-based, focusing on factors like EPS, ROE, and growth potential [6]. Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is expected to show a "front low, back high" trend in GDP growth, estimated between 4.5% and 5.0% for the first half of 2026, with support from consumption, investment, and exports [7]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S.-China dynamics, is anticipated to influence market stability and investment flows, with China positioned as a relatively stable market amid global uncertainties [7]. Industry Opportunities - In the AI sector, there is a genuine and sustained demand for domestic AI solutions, with a focus on advanced processing and chip technologies [8]. - The copper market is expected to see continued price increases due to strong demand and supply shortages, while lithium carbonate is projected to remain tight in supply [8][9]. - The new energy sector is focusing on storage, lithium battery materials, nuclear fusion, and solid-state batteries, with significant growth anticipated in storage solutions [8]. - The robotics industry is transitioning to a mid-stage focus, with key components like joint assemblies and dexterous hands being highlighted as important areas for investment [9].