伯恩斯坦拉响警报：流动性泛滥催生“全面泡沫“，AI仅是冰山一角

Core Viewpoint - Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA) warns that excess liquidity is driving asset prices far beyond fundamental support levels, leading to a "broad-based frenzy" in the market, extending beyond artificial intelligence (AI) [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market is described as being in a "full-blown bubble," affecting not only AI but also cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, SPACs, investment-grade bonds, and high-yield bonds [3] - The loose monetary and fiscal policies are identified as the primary causes of this disconnection from fundamental valuations [3] Group 2: Concerns in Credit Investments - The AI boom raises particular concerns for credit investors, as they cannot share in the excess returns if AI succeeds, and will bear losses if it fails [4] - Major tech companies are expected to invest approximately $440 billion in AI infrastructure over the next year, with a 34% increase in capital expenditures [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy Adjustments - RBA has completely exited the corporate bond market, having previously been overweight in this area, due to the relative value proposition no longer being valid when spreads fall below 90 basis points [4] - As of now, the U.S. high-grade credit risk premium has risen to 78 basis points, remaining below 90 basis points since May of the previous year [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is a warning that if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts do not meet market expectations, credit spreads may widen further this year [5] - RBA is shifting focus towards collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), mortgage-backed securities (MBS), high-grade floating-rate debt, and European equities, which are seen as more attractive due to fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy [5]