中金点睛·2026-01-08 23:59Core Viewpoint - The company continues to be optimistic about the performance of "forestry-pulp-paper integration" leaders by 2026, emphasizing that integration is key to achieving cost hedging and resource revaluation amid resource constraints and cost fluctuations. Focus should be on "value integrators" with high fiber self-sufficiency and resource barriers [2]. Industry Overview - After the paper industry bull market in 2021, profit distribution has tilted towards the pulp end, with a "long tail effect" in paper capacity clearance. The industry chain currently shows characteristics of "high concentration at the resource end and dispersed competition at the processing end," with pulp being a scarce resource commanding strong pricing power. The midstream paper sector is squeezed by high pulp prices and weak demand, leading to a continuous narrowing of profit margins [5][7]. - The strategic paradigm has shifted from capacity expansion to industry chain integration. Chinese paper companies have entered a mature phase of stock competition, where growth driven solely by capital expenditure is unsustainable. The core strategy has shifted to using self-owned fiber to hedge against volatile pulp prices, transforming leading companies from "global resource movers" to "value integrators" [5][8]. Market Dynamics - A short-term supply gap for wood chips is expected in 2026, with a potential recovery in pulp price levels. The domestic market has seen large-scale production of self-made pulp, but the construction cycle for quality wood chip resources lags behind equipment production. This is anticipated to push up cost levels as demand marginally improves [6]. - The competition landscape is characterized by heavy asset attributes and slow clearance. The investment per ton of paper exceeds 5,000 yuan, while pulp investment is over 2,000 yuan, leading to a long payback period. High depreciation necessitates maintaining high capacity utilization for cash flow, but the supply exceeds demand, and the core contradiction lies in the slow clearance efficiency at the bottom of the cycle [7]. Strategic Evolution - The industry has transitioned from a demand-driven phase to a mature phase of stock competition. Due to a lack of quality forest resources for pulp production, paper companies are in a "strong manufacturing, weak resource" decoupling state, making them vulnerable to global pulp price and exchange rate fluctuations. The strategic focus of leading companies has shifted to "forestry-pulp-paper integration," allowing them to convert unstable processing profits into certain resource premiums [8][9]. Global Comparison - Compared to emerging markets like Brazil, which are still in a dual growth phase of resources and consumption, the valuation logic of Chinese paper companies is undergoing reconstruction. Future focus will shift from capacity growth to the self-sufficiency rate of the entire industry chain. Leading companies are moving away from being "global resource movers" and are enhancing their cost control capabilities, which is crucial for maintaining stable ROE and achieving valuation recovery [9].