Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing transformation of the real estate industry towards a new model, focusing on asset management as a key capability for high-quality development in housing and operational real estate businesses [2][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Trends - The transition of real estate companies to asset management firms has been primarily driven by financial deepening over the past 40 years, with significant progress observed in Western economies during the 2010s, while Asian markets are still in the early stages of this transformation [4][5]. - The level of securitization and liquidity in the real estate sector has evolved in tandem with the overall development of capital markets, indicating a crucial part of global capital market development [4]. Group 2: China's Market Dynamics - China is at a dual turning point of urbanization and financial market development, making the exploration of asset management by real estate companies an inevitable direction, with the 14th Five-Year Plan potentially being a critical period for institutional development [5][41]. - The market has begun to recognize the transition path from "traditional development" to "development + holding" and then to "asset management," with leading companies starting to implement this model [5][41]. - The transformation of real estate companies in China faces challenges, including reliance on policy support to address various bottlenecks and the need for organizational and capability adjustments [5][42]. Group 3: Financial Deepening and Structural Changes - The financial deepening over the past four decades has led to a more stable housing ownership rate in developed economies, with cyclical fluctuations in supply and demand being increasingly influenced by capital flows and asset prices [9][10]. - The rise of asset management companies has been facilitated by the development of securitization and the increasing liquidity of real estate assets, which has allowed for a shift from direct asset accumulation to managing larger portfolios [13][25]. Group 4: International Comparisons - The evolution of real estate companies in Western markets, particularly the U.S., showcases a more market-oriented and financialized approach, leading to a more competitive landscape compared to East Asian markets, where companies often maintain a mixed business model [16][21]. - Japanese real estate firms have undergone significant structural adjustments post-1990s, focusing on diversification and service-oriented business models, although they have not fully transitioned to asset management firms [27][30]. - Singaporean firms exemplify an outward-looking asset management model, leveraging their REITs market to facilitate international investments and capital expansion [33][35]. Group 5: Future Outlook for China's Real Estate Industry - The future of China's real estate market is expected to focus on managing existing assets and optimizing new developments, with a shift towards a sales model based on completed properties rather than pre-sales [41][48]. - The ongoing process of destocking and deleveraging in the real estate sector is anticipated to continue, with a significant reduction in the scale of many companies as they adapt to new market conditions [42][46]. - The development of a robust REITs market is seen as essential for promoting the securitization of operational real estate and enhancing liquidity, which will support the transition to a new business model in the industry [47][50].
中金：中国房企发展与转型——迈向资产管理