芯片设备大厂：我们进入超级周期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated surge in demand for memory chips driven by artificial intelligence, which is expected to benefit Tokyo Electron through increased capital investment and R&D spending [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Memory prices have skyrocketed, with benchmark DRAM spot prices rising nearly tenfold year-on-year [1]. - The emergence of global data centers to meet AI processing demands is creating a significant need for chips [1]. - Investment in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is rapidly increasing, with companies like SK Hynix and Samsung investing billions in new production facilities expected to be operational around 2027-2028 [1]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Financials - Tokyo Electron aims to capitalize on the economic supercycle, with a target of achieving cumulative sales of 500 billion yen (approximately $3.2 billion) in DRAM interconnect etching systems by the fiscal year 2030 [2]. - Despite a projected 10% decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025 to 488 billion yen, R&D spending is expected to rise by 16% to 290 billion yen, and capital investment is projected to increase by 48% to 240 billion yen, both reaching historical highs [2]. - Tokyo Electron's R&D investments are reportedly more profitable compared to competitors, with a profit-to-R&D cost ratio of 5.5 times, surpassing Lam Research and Applied Materials [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Lam Research has dominated the global etching equipment market with a market share of 40% to 50%, while Tokyo Electron holds 20% to 30% [3]. - Analysts suggest that if Tokyo Electron can narrow the gap with Lam, even a small increase in market share could significantly boost its earnings [3]. - Tokyo Electron's stock has risen 42% in 2025, which is lower than the more than doubling of Lam's stock and a 58% increase for Applied Materials [3].