开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（三）

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market outlook for 2026, based on insights from 31 institutions covering 47 trading varieties across various sectors including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1][2]. Group 1: Energy and Chemical Products - Institutions show a strong consensus on bullish views for certain products like PX (para-xylene), driven by supply constraints and robust demand, particularly in the first half of 2026 [3][4]. - Conversely, there is a unified bearish outlook for products like MEG (ethylene glycol) and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), attributed to oversupply and weak demand dynamics [3][4]. - The oil market is expected to experience fluctuations, with Brent crude prices projected to range between $60-70 per barrel in the first half and potentially rise to $70-80 in the second half of 2026 [5][9]. Group 2: Price Predictions and Strategies - Price predictions for Brent crude suggest a range of $55-75 per barrel, with strategies focusing on high sell positions above $65 and long positions if prices drop to around $50 [10][15]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate between 2000-2600 yuan per ton, with strategies emphasizing seasonal trading opportunities [57][90]. - Urea prices are anticipated to range from 1500-1950 yuan per ton, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance and reliance on export policies for stabilization [99][100]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply-Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance is projected to shift from a slight surplus in the first half of 2026 to a tighter balance in the latter half, influenced by geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production decisions [7][8][44]. - Institutions highlight the ongoing tension between supply growth from OPEC+ and non-OECD countries against the backdrop of resilient demand, particularly from strategic reserves [7][8]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious approach to trading, with many institutions advocating for strategies that capitalize on seasonal fluctuations and geopolitical developments [35][36][37].