Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a 15-day consecutive rise, but the momentum is weakening, with other major indices showing signs of decline. The continuation of the spring market relies on maintaining trading enthusiasm and sector rotation rather than just the streak of gains [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The spring market is expected to focus on technology growth and rising raw material prices, with the AI industry investment trend being a significant driving force. As global uncertainties diminish, the market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory in January [1]. - Key themes for the upcoming spring market include the growth narrative in technology and the rising prices of raw materials, driven by the investment boom in the AI sector. Attention should be paid to capital expenditures and investment plans from major tech companies in North America and China [1]. Group 2: Hot Sectors - In January, technology and raw material price increases are expected to dominate, with high-dividend stocks also being a focus for potential gains in the upcoming months. The technology growth direction is likely to outperform based on historical spring market trends [2]. - Specific areas of interest include commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, low-altitude economy, and semiconductors, which are seen as short-term catalysts for growth [2]. - The AI hardware industry is projected to maintain a high growth trend, with significant increases in token usage for major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2]. - The trend towards domestic production of robots and their integration into daily life is expected to solidify by 2026, creating opportunities in related sectors such as sensors and controllers [2]. - The semiconductor industry is moving towards domestic production, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. - The demand for new energy materials is rising due to rapid growth in domestic and overseas energy storage needs, leading to supply shortages and price increases, a trend expected to continue into 2026 [2]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [2].
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申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2026-01-09 05:22