疫苗龙头存货200亿，借102亿续命，今年大批九价HPV疫苗将过期

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the financial distress faced by Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd., which is seeking a loan of up to 10.2 billion yuan to address its significant inventory and operational challenges, reflecting broader issues within the Chinese vaccine industry [1][5]. Financial Situation - As of Q3 2025, Zhifei Biological reported a staggering inventory balance of 20.246 billion yuan, a 125% increase from the beginning of 2024, alongside accounts receivable of 12.814 billion yuan, totaling 33 billion yuan, which is over four times its revenue for that period [5][6]. - The company has experienced a continuous decline in performance, with revenue dropping over 50% to 26.07 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit decrease of nearly 75%. By Q3 2025, it recorded a cumulative loss of 1.2 billion yuan [5][6]. Inventory and Market Challenges - The core product, the nine-valent HPV vaccine, has a shelf life of three years, with a significant number of vaccines set to expire in 2026, potentially leading to large-scale bad debt provisions [5][6]. - The HPV vaccine market has shifted from a supply shortage to an oversupply situation, with sales declining since 2024, exacerbated by price wars initiated by competitors [6][8]. Industry Dynamics - The vaccine industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with many companies facing similar challenges. In the first half of 2025, only 6 out of 17 listed vaccine companies were profitable, while 5 reported losses [6][8]. - The price of the two-valent HPV vaccine has plummeted from 329 yuan per dose in 2022 to 27.5 yuan in 2025, a decline of over 90%, indicating intense price competition [6][8]. Strategic Responses - In response to its financial crisis, Zhifei Biological has prioritized inventory reduction, debt recovery, and lowering liabilities, launching vaccination campaigns across various regions [8][9]. - The company is also focusing on diversifying its product offerings and reducing reliance on agency business, with plans to increase the number of self-developed products in the next three to five years [8][9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the vaccine industry is in a critical phase of reshaping, where companies with strong R&D capabilities and diversified product lines will emerge as winners. However, managing inventory and cash flow remains a pressing concern for survival in the short term [9].