如何解读求是文章《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》︱重阳问答

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing expectations in the real estate market rather than implementing strong stimulus measures to reverse trends [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Contribution of Real Estate - The real estate and construction sectors are projected to account for 13% of China's GDP in 2024, directly supporting over 70 million jobs [2]. - Internationally, the average contribution of real estate to GDP in developed countries like the US, UK, Japan, and Germany is over 10%, highlighting its role as a stabilizing force in the economy [2]. Group 2: Current Market Challenges - The core issue in the real estate adjustment is the unsustainability of traditional development models rather than a lack of confidence [3]. - The market has shifted from a housing shortage to a state of balance, with structural issues such as insufficient affordable housing and quality supply emerging [3]. - There remains significant potential for market transformation, as some urban households still have less than 20 square meters of living space, and the renovation of old neighborhoods can create new demand [3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Current policies should focus on stabilizing market expectations, controlling new supply, and revitalizing existing stock, while encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [3]. - The article suggests that maintaining sufficient transaction volumes in the real estate market can help meet housing demand and keep risks manageable [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment in Lower-Tier Cities - The housing market in many third and fourth-tier cities is primarily facing inventory issues, and after significant price declines, housing affordability has returned to reasonable levels [4].