可选消费2026年展望：内需待修复，出海进行时

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector in 2025 shows weak stock performance with significant structural differentiation, where new consumption companies outperform traditional ones, indicating a trend of generational transition in consumer behavior [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Market Trends - The consumer sector's stock prices have been weak, with all sub-sectors underperforming the CSI 300 index except for media [2]. - The transition from traditional to new consumption reflects a slowdown in the growth of the main consumer demographic and a shift in consumption structure among younger groups [2]. - As of the end of 2024, China's total population is approximately 1.408 billion, with a declining birth rate and an increasing death rate, leading to a potential decrease in the main consumer population aged 20-59 [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors Affecting Consumption - The real estate market is under pressure, with new housing prices declining for 29 consecutive months and second-hand housing prices for 30 months, impacting consumer willingness to spend [4]. - Consumer price index (CPI) has shown negative growth for six months in 2025, indicating weakened consumer purchasing power, with urban residents' disposable income growth lagging behind GDP growth since Q2 2024 [4]. Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence in China has been gradually recovering since October 2024, following a significant drop in 2022, likely due to policy support and stock market rebounds [6]. - Current valuations of consumer sub-sectors are generally below the average levels from 2016-2019, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment, with any positive news potentially boosting consumer confidence [6][10].