我们算soft landing了吗

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant real estate bubble in China, which has led to a massive wealth extraction from residents and a steep increase in macro leverage over the past decade [2][4]. - There is a large amount of unsold real estate inventory, including various types of distressed properties, indicating that the debt transfer to residents is still a pressing issue and a soft landing is far from being achieved [4][5]. - The article highlights the dangers of a rapid decline in property prices, which could trigger a vicious cycle similar to the stock market crash in 2015, where liquidity issues could lead to severe financial risks [5][6]. Group 2 - The current housing market is viewed as overpriced based on rental yield ratios, suggesting that prices in cities like Beijing may need to be halved to reach a more reasonable level [7][11]. - Despite the decline in property values, consumer spending in certain areas remains robust, indicating that while wealth has decreased, it has not severely impacted overall consumption behavior [11]. - The article emphasizes the long-term implications of declining birth rates on the real estate market, suggesting that fewer potential buyers could lead to prolonged market stagnation [13]. Group 3 - The government appears to prefer a gradual decline in property prices rather than a sharp drop, as this would allow resources to flow into the technology sector instead of real estate speculation [16]. - A general decline of around 30% in property prices could lead to significant challenges for major real estate companies, indicating that the current situation may not be a soft landing but rather a hard landing [17].