【广发宏观陈礼清】如何看商品指数年度再平衡及今年白银定价

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) underwent a rebalancing from January 9 to January 15, resulting in a significant reduction of gold and silver weights, with gold decreasing from 20.5% to 14.9% and silver from 9.7% to 3.94% [1][6][30] - Historical data suggests that rebalancing typically has limited impact on futures and spot prices, primarily affecting open interest and trading volume [8][30] - The 2026 rebalancing is unique due to the unprecedented reduction in silver weight by 5.8%, alongside a notable increase in silver's volatility and liquidity concerns [8][30][33] Group 2 - Since 2022, silver and gold mining stocks have been viewed as "gold-like" assets, with financial attributes driving their pricing. However, a shift occurred in 2025, where silver's spot market experienced short-term tightness, leading to a narrative-driven market [12][13] - Industrial demand for silver is projected to account for nearly 60% of total demand by 2024, significantly up from 45% in 2015, driven by solar energy and other industrial applications [17][18] - The narrative around silver pricing is expected to evolve, with supply-demand dynamics becoming more critical in determining price fluctuations, particularly as new industrial demands emerge [19][27] Group 3 - The analysis of past silver pricing trends indicates that significant price movements were often linked to broader economic narratives, such as geopolitical events and monetary policy changes [21][22] - Current conditions suggest that the "shortage" narrative for silver is easing but has not fully reversed, with indicators like swap rates and leasing rates showing signs of stabilization [24][27] - The upcoming year is anticipated to see silver prices influenced by both the rebalancing effects and the evolving dynamics of the physical market, particularly in light of U.S. trade policies [27][28]