［1月9日］指数估值数据(大盘继续上涨，牛市到什么阶段；港股指数估值表更新；抽奖福利）

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with the index approaching a rating of 3.90 stars, indicating a potential for further growth in the near future [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - All market segments, including large, medium, and small-cap stocks, have seen increases, with small-cap stocks showing the most significant gains [2]. - The CSI 1000 and 2000 indices are now considered overvalued, while the CSI 500 and low-volatility indices are quickly approaching overvaluation [2]. - Since 2018, the CSI 500 low-volatility index has nearly doubled, driven by valuation increases, profit growth, and low-volatility rebalancing [2]. Group 2: Market Phases and Trends - The current bull market is characterized by structural trends, where not all sectors rise or fall together, indicating a rotation in market styles [2]. - The A-share market has seen a significant increase of over 60% since September 2024, with three notable upward waves contributing to a total rise of approximately 74% [2][3]. - Market liquidity is a key driver of the current upward trend, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the overall global liquidity environment [3][5]. Group 3: Liquidity Factors - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts through 2026 are expected to maintain a favorable liquidity environment [5]. - A significant amount of deposits, approximately 30 trillion yuan, is set to mature in 2026, with a portion likely to flow into financial assets, including stocks [8][10]. - The current low interest rates on deposits are expected to redirect some funds into the stock market, although not all will enter equities [10][11]. Group 4: Corporate Earnings Growth - Corporate earnings are recovering, with a notable increase in profits for the technology sector, which is leading the market [17][18]. - Some sectors, such as consumer goods, are still experiencing declines in earnings, indicating a mixed performance across different industries [20]. - Continuous monitoring of corporate earnings growth will be essential in 2026 to gauge market expectations [21][22]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - As the market approaches a rating of 3.90 stars, the optimal phase for stock fund investments may have passed, suggesting a shift towards asset allocation and profit-taking strategies [23][24]. - The focus for 2026 should be on managing asset allocation rather than aggressive stock fund purchases [24]. Group 6: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market has also returned to a rating of 3.90 stars, with updated valuations provided for various indices [25]. - The valuation table for Hong Kong indices includes metrics such as P/E ratios and dividend yields, offering insights for potential investors [26].