Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (SZ:000792) 21世纪经济报道·2026-01-09 15:10Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) has seen a significant upward revision in its 2026 profit expectations, with forecasts now ranging from 100 billion to 120 billion yuan, driven by improved market conditions in the potassium and lithium sectors, as well as strong new capacity and asset injection plans [1][8]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The company's recent earnings forecast indicates a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 82.9 billion to 88.9 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.78% to 90.65%, exceeding previous market expectations [1]. - Prior to the earnings forecast, sell-side analysts estimated the 2026 profit range at 62 to 82 billion yuan, which has now been revised upward to around 100 billion yuan, with some institutions like Everbright Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan projecting approximately 120 billion yuan [1][8]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Trends - The price of potassium chloride has increased compared to the same period last year, while lithium carbonate prices have shown volatility but are gradually recovering in the second half of the year, contributing to overall growth in the company's performance [3]. - In 2025, the ex-factory price of potassium chloride (60% powder, Qinghai salt lake) rose from 2,550 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, with an annual average price of 2,938.1 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of only 16.68% [3]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate for the year decreased from 90,500 yuan/ton to around 75,500 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.57%, although prices have been rising significantly in the fourth quarter [5]. Group 3: Production and Capacity Expansion - The company’s lithium salt business is expected to see substantial capacity growth, with rights-based capacity projected to increase from 20,000 tons in 2025 to approximately 69,000 tons, a growth rate of 245%, significantly outpacing nominal capacity growth [10][12]. - The company’s production forecast for 2025 includes approximately 4.9 million tons of potassium chloride and 46,500 tons of lithium carbonate, with sales figures showing a decrease in potassium chloride sales by 18.37% and an increase in lithium carbonate sales by 9.6% compared to 2024 [5]. Group 4: Financial and Valuation Insights - As of January 9, 2026, the market capitalization of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. reached 165.5 billion yuan, with a stock price of 31.28 yuan, corresponding to an estimated earnings per share of approximately 1.62 yuan for 2025, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 times [18][19]. - Considering the potential profit growth for 2026, the estimated earnings per share could rise to around 2.02 yuan, leading to a reduced price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 15.5 times [19].