数据点评 | 输入性通胀的影响在升温（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The surge in copper and gold prices, influenced by input factors, has led to a continued rise in inflation for December [2][8] - December's PPI increased primarily due to the rise in copper prices, while other commodity prices and mid-to-lower stream PPI showed weak performance [2][8] - The CPI for December rose year-on-year, supported by high gold prices, although core CPI excluding gold remained low [2][8] Inflation Data Summary - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released December 2025 inflation data: CPI year-on-year at 0.8%, previous value 0.7%, expected 0.8%, month-on-month at 0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -1.9%, previous value -2.2%, expected -2%, month-on-month at 0.2 [1][7][71] PPI Analysis - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, driven by a 7.9% rise in copper prices, which was the strongest contributing factor [2][8] - Coal prices contributed positively to PPI, while international oil prices declined, negatively impacting domestic oil prices [2][8] - The utilization rate in mid-to-lower stream sectors did not improve significantly, leading to a failure in price transmission from upstream to downstream [2][8] CPI Analysis - December CPI rose year-on-year by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, with core CPI rising to 2% mainly due to high gold prices [2][8] - Excluding gold, the remaining core CPI continued to decline, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points to -0.7% [2][8] - The CPI for food items increased by 0.9 percentage points to 1.1%, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant price increases due to supply constraints [3][23][72] Service CPI Insights - The service CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%, with weak rental demand dragging down housing rent CPI [3][29][72] - Core service CPI also decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1%, while dining out CPI saw a slight decline [3][29][72] Future Outlook - The ability of anti-involution policies to sustain price increases in mid-to-lower stream sectors is crucial for future inflation trends [4][40] - Over the past three years, commodity prices have only explained about 30% of PPI fluctuations, with more influence from price "over-declines" in mid-to-lower stream sectors [4][40] - High gold prices and improvements in service consumption may support core CPI, but the high base effect from the Spring Festival may limit January's CPI increase [4][40]