数据点评 | 输入性通胀的影响在升温（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - The surge in copper and gold prices, influenced by input factors, has led to a continued rise in inflation for December [2][8] - December's PPI increased primarily due to the rise in copper prices, while other commodity prices and mid-to-lower stream PPI showed weak performance [2][8] - The CPI for December rose year-on-year, supported by high gold prices, although core CPI excluding gold remained low [2][16] Inflation Data Summary - The National Bureau of Statistics reported December CPI at 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1][7] - December PPI was reported at -1.9% year-on-year, an improvement from -2.2% previously, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1][7] PPI Analysis - The increase in PPI was driven by a 7.9% rise in copper prices, contributing significantly to the PPI increase [2][8] - Coal prices had a minor positive contribution to PPI, while the decline in international oil prices negatively impacted domestic oil prices, dragging PPI down by -0.05% [2][8] - The underutilization of mid-to-lower stream capacity hindered the transmission of upstream price increases, further affecting PPI negatively [2][8] CPI Breakdown - Food CPI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 1.1% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant price increases due to supply constraints [3][23] - The price of pork, heavily influenced by anti-involution effects, remained low, with pork CPI at -14.6% [3][23] - Service CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%, primarily due to weak rental demand affecting housing costs [3][29] Future Outlook - The ability of anti-involution policies to sustain price increases in the mid-to-lower stream is critical, with ongoing monitoring of policy effects [4][40] - Commodity prices have only explained about 30% of PPI fluctuations in the past three years, with more influence from mid-to-lower stream price declines [4][40] - High gold prices and improvements in service consumption may support core CPI increases, although the high base effect from the Spring Festival may limit January's CPI growth [4][40] Regular Monitoring - December CPI showed a continued rise, with significant contributions from food items [4][74] - Non-food CPI categories such as household appliances and transportation also saw increases, while overall service CPI experienced a decline [4][74]