【机械】11月工程机械内需持续复苏，海外增长加速——工程机械行业2025年11月月报（陈佳宁/夏天宇/汲萌）

Core Viewpoint - The domestic excavator sales in China continue to grow, indicating a recovery in the internal demand cycle, with significant increases in non-excavator machinery sales as well [4][5][6]. Group 1: Excavator Sales and Growth - In November 2025, China's excavator sales (including exports) reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units, up 9.1% [4]. - From January to November 2025, total excavator sales were 212,162 units, reflecting a 16.7% year-on-year growth, while domestic sales were 108,187 units, increasing by 18.6% [4]. - The sales of non-excavator construction machinery showed a notable recovery, with loader sales up 29.4%, grader sales up 24.7%, truck crane sales up 25.8%, crawler crane sales up 102.0%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 36.4% in November 2025 [4]. Group 2: Future Demand and Market Trends - The ongoing replacement cycle of construction machinery is expected to drive sales, with a projected compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [5]. - The export of second-hand construction machinery to developing countries is reducing the domestic machinery inventory, further supporting new machine sales [5]. Group 3: Policy and Investment Impact - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, which is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and subsequently boost demand for construction equipment [7]. - The meeting highlighted the need to optimize fiscal expenditure and enhance the management of local government special bonds, which will contribute to stabilizing investment [7]. Group 4: Export Performance - In November 2025, excavator exports reached 10,185 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, with total exports from January to November at 103,975 units, up 14.9% [8]. - The export value of construction machinery in November 2025 was $5.23 billion, reflecting a 16.6% year-on-year growth, with a total export value of $53.76 billion from January to November, up 12.4% [8]. - Future opportunities for exports include increased demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, despite challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [8]. Group 5: Electrification Trends - In November 2025, electric loader sales surged to 2,935 units, marking a 192.0% year-on-year increase, with an electrification rate of 25.7%, up 14.1 percentage points [9]. - From January to November 2025, electric loader sales totaled 27,049 units, a 160.9% increase, with an electrification rate of 23.4%, up 12.9 percentage points [9]. - The emphasis on green and electric machinery is expected to accelerate the electrification process in the construction machinery industry, enhancing revenue and profits for manufacturers [9]. Group 6: Major Projects Impact - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with an estimated total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost demand for construction machinery [10]. - The project is anticipated to require around 120 billion to 180 billion yuan worth of machinery, with a focus on large excavators, rock tunnel boring machines, cranes, and concrete machinery [10].