【宏观】美关税裁决的三个猜想 ——《大国博弈》系列第九十四篇（赵格格/周欣平）

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to soon rule on the legality of Trump's tariff package, with a high probability of ruling it illegal based on significant legal flaws in Trump's tax rationale, as indicated by a 76% market expectation of his defeat [4]. Group 1: Speculation on Legal Outcomes - Speculation One: The likelihood of Trump's global tariff case being ruled illegal is high due to major legal flaws in his tax rationale, with market expectations showing a 76% probability of defeat [4]. Group 2: Government Response to Potential Defeat - Speculation Two: If the tariff ruling is unfavorable, the Trump administration may respond in two phases: short-term invocation of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days, and long-term initiation of Section 301/232 investigations to transition from court-stopped tariffs to trade investigation-based tariffs, with considerations for a 301 investigation against the EU [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions to Tariff Ruling - Speculation Three: - The impact on U.S. stocks is expected to be neutral to slightly positive, benefiting tariff-sensitive sectors like manufacturing and retail, while considering the uncertainty of targeted tax increases from future investigations [6]. - In the bond market, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account balance is sufficient to mitigate refund pressures, with short-term issuance pressures remaining low. The key factors for Q1 2026 bond trends will be the government shutdown risk and economic/inflation rebound, although long-term uncertainty regarding tariff revenues may increase debt deficit pressures and bond risk premiums [6]. - The effect on gold prices is complex; while the elimination of tariff policy uncertainty may negatively impact gold, a decline in tariff revenues could undermine dollar credibility, potentially benefiting gold. Current gold price movements are becoming less sensitive to the dollar, U.S. bonds, and interest rate cuts, and are more influenced by geopolitical developments [6].