虎嗅APP·2026-01-10 03:35Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is facing unprecedented price increases across all hardware components, driven primarily by the surge in AI demand, leading to a supply chain crisis that affects consumer electronics significantly [4][10][12]. Price Increases and Market Dynamics - The average price of PCs is expected to rise by 4% to 8%, with major manufacturers warning of potential price hikes between 15% and 20% due to ongoing memory shortages expected to last until 2027 [4][10]. - The price of storage chips, particularly DRAM and NAND Flash, has skyrocketed, with contract prices increasing by 80% to 100% by December 2025, largely due to AI data centers' demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) [6][12]. - Graphics cards are also seeing price increases, with AMD and NVIDIA planning to raise prices starting in January and February 2026, respectively, due to rising costs of GDDR memory [7][12]. Impact on Hardware Components - The motherboard market is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with offline channel sales dropping over 50% due to high installation costs, leading to a "one-time price increase" strategy for new laptops [8][12]. - The overall PC market is at a crossroads, with a mix of urgent upgrade needs due to the end of Windows 10 support and rising semiconductor costs creating a "perfect storm" for the industry [10][11]. AI's Influence on Semiconductor Allocation - AI's unprecedented demand is reshaping the semiconductor industry's resource allocation, with a shift from consumer electronics to high-value AI chips, resulting in reduced supply for standard consumer-grade components [12][13]. - The global HBM market is projected to grow by 300% by 2025, as major manufacturers redirect DRAM capacity to meet the needs of AI chip producers like NVIDIA and Google [13][14]. Industry Responses and Strategies - Companies like Lenovo are increasing memory inventory to navigate shortages, while larger PC brands leverage their supply chain power to mitigate impacts [18]. - Upstream storage giants are adopting varied strategies, with Samsung shifting some HBM capacity to general DRAM production, while Micron focuses on the data center market [18][19]. - Some manufacturers are implementing flexible product strategies, such as offering "quasi-systems" without memory modules to transfer cost risks to consumers [20]. Future Outlook - The PC industry is entering a prolonged adjustment period, with 2026 expected to be particularly challenging as the market adapts to high costs and low growth [20]. - The current trend of "reduced volume, increased prices" is likely to persist until the AI demand's impact on advanced capacity diminishes, making it a new normal for the industry [20].