每周推荐 | 人民币和港股，谁是谁的“影子”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between the Chinese yuan and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting their historical positive correlation and the recent divergence due to various market factors [2]. Group 1: Yuan and Hong Kong Stocks - Historical analysis shows a significant positive correlation between the yuan and Hong Kong stocks, influenced by stock earnings, asset revaluation effects, and foreign capital inflows [2]. - Recent rapid appreciation of the yuan has not led to an increase in Hong Kong stocks, attributed to weak performance in key sectors and a focus on profit-taking in the market [2]. - Future expectations suggest that as Hong Kong stock earnings improve and foreign capital allocation resumes, the negative correlation with the US dollar may return, with yuan appreciation potentially aiding in stock price increases [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Equipment investment has shown strong growth, reflecting either a phase of the Juglar cycle or a new stage of economic transformation, raising questions about sustainability in 2026 [8]. - The structure of equipment investment indicates that non-manufacturing sectors account for 35%, with significant contributions from services and construction [8]. Group 3: New Infrastructure Development - The article emphasizes the importance of "new infrastructure" as a core component of broader infrastructure initiatives, advocating for proactive development in technology and digital transformation [9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" highlight the need for advanced infrastructure, including 5G networks and data centers, to enhance efficiency and support economic growth [9].