百亿美元做空中国供应链？华尔街视角解读美国“世纪并购”格陵兰的底层逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The article presents the acquisition of Greenland by the United States as a strategically calculated move rather than a mere geopolitical stunt, highlighting its potential high return on investment (ROI) and its role as a leverage hedge against China's strategic advantages [5][22]. Valuation Model - The acquisition is framed as a "bargain deal," with the U.S. planning to pay up to $100,000 per Greenland resident and replace Denmark's annual subsidy of approximately $600 million, potentially increasing it to $2.2 billion [8][11]. - Over a 30-year horizon, the total investment (OPEX + CAPEX) is estimated at around $100 billion, which is only about 10% of the U.S. annual defense budget [8][11]. Core Asset Breakdown - Greenland is viewed as a perfect hedge against "China risk," particularly in the context of rare earth supply chains, where China currently dominates processing capabilities [14][15]. - The Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez deposits in Greenland are among the few undeveloped assets that can rival Chinese mines in both scale and quality [14]. - Control over Greenland would devalue China's leverage in rare earths, effectively "shorting" the Chinese supply chain [16]. - The melting Arctic is opening new shipping routes, with Greenland controlling a critical passage that could reduce shipping times by 30%-40% [16][18]. - Militarily, Greenland serves as a strategic point to block Russian submarines from entering the Atlantic, making direct control more efficient than maintaining the status quo [18]. Transaction Feasibility - The acquisition faces challenges due to the Danish government's refusal to sell and local skepticism among Greenland's population [20]. - The U.S. is shifting its strategy from a direct purchase to a more nuanced approach through a "Compact of Free Association" (COFA), supporting Greenland's management in a management buyout (MBO) while establishing exclusive defense agreements [20]. - The probability of achieving substantial control through the COFA model is estimated at 30%-50% over the next decade, despite a less than 5% chance of direct merger in the short term [20]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that the U.S. is leveraging its dollar dominance to execute a strategic maneuver in global geopolitics, which could reshape Arctic dynamics and diminish China's strategic position in rare earths and Arctic shipping routes [22][23][24].