美联储月末降息没戏？“新美联储通讯社”称12月非农就业给按兵不动铺路，交易员预计1月几无可能

Core Viewpoint - The December non-farm payroll report has eliminated market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the end of this month, despite only 50,000 new jobs added in December and significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data. The unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 4.4% provides ample justification for the Fed's decision to maintain its current monetary policy stance [1][4][13]. Employment Data Summary - The December non-farm payroll report revealed an increase of only 50,000 jobs, falling short of Wall Street's expectation of 65,000. Additionally, the previous two months' job numbers were revised down by a total of 76,000, with October's figures adjusted from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, and November's from an increase of 64,000 to 56,000 [8]. - The average monthly job growth in the private sector over the last three months has dropped to 29,000, marking the second-lowest level for the year. The total non-farm employment increase for 2025 was only 584,000, the weakest annual performance since the pandemic caused a loss of 9.2 million jobs in 2020 [8]. - In terms of industry performance, healthcare added 21,000 jobs, while sectors such as retail trade, construction, and manufacturing saw job losses. Out of 11 major industries, five experienced declines in employment [11]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.6% in November to 4.4% in December, alleviating some of the most severe concerns regarding labor market deterioration. This decline is partly attributed to a drop in the labor force participation rate to 62.4%, indicating that some unemployed individuals have exited the labor market and are no longer counted as actively seeking work [4][18]. - The decrease in the unemployment rate is a key highlight of the non-farm payroll report and serves as a core basis for the Fed's decision to hold rates steady [18]. Wage Growth Analysis - Despite the weak job growth, wage growth remains resilient, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3% month-over-month in December, and the annual wage growth reaching 3.8%, which is approximately 1 percentage point above the inflation rate [12]. Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the employment report, bond traders quickly adjusted their positions, almost entirely retracting bets on a January rate cut. U.S. Treasury prices fell across the board, with yields rising by up to 3 basis points. The probability of a January rate cut dropped to zero, with traders now expecting the first rate cut in June, following the end of Fed Chair Powell's term, with an anticipated total cut of about 50 basis points for the year [5][20]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious approach, with the focus shifting to inflation data and subsequent labor market performance to determine the pace and magnitude of potential rate cuts throughout the year [22].