金融大家评 | 中国社会科学院学部委员蔡昉：“十五五”时期投资于人的理论范式和实践模式

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of integrating "investment in material" and "investment in people" to support high-quality population development and achieve Chinese-style modernization, as highlighted by Xi Jinping during the 20th Central Financial Committee meeting in 2023 [4]. Group 1: Theoretical Paradigm Shift - Achieving shared development and common prosperity requires a specific level of per capita GDP, which does not automatically resolve income distribution issues. Historical experiences show that countries with smaller income gaps often implement significant redistribution policies [5]. - Increasing social investment in government spending and expanding public goods supply are essential for enhancing common prosperity and investing in people [6]. - Investment in people should not diminish the principle of ensuring and improving people's livelihoods but should seek a dynamic balance at a higher level, emphasizing the need for new requirements based on rising income levels and national fiscal capacity [6][7]. Group 2: Practical Mode Transformation - As economic development progresses, the quality of life increasingly relies on the supply of high-quality public goods, revealing a common feature in modernization experiences across countries [9]. - China is expected to cross the high-income threshold by 2035, necessitating a significant increase in public goods supply to address the "Galbraith's paradox" and enhance public welfare [10]. - The decline in investment returns and the shift from supply-side to demand-side constraints highlight the urgency of investing in human capital to boost productivity and economic growth [11][12]. Group 3: Key Areas for Investment in People - Policies should focus on creating a fertility-friendly society to reverse declining birth rates, as evidenced by the total fertility rate dropping to 1.3 in 2020 [18]. - The demographic transition provides an opportunity to optimize human capital development resources, allowing for better allocation of educational resources and support for vocational training [19]. - Addressing structural employment issues, particularly among the youth and elderly, is crucial for creating high-quality job opportunities and ensuring equitable labor market participation [23]. Group 4: Redistribution and Public Service Enhancement - Effective redistribution measures, such as tax and transfer payments, are necessary to narrow income gaps and improve the equalization of basic public services [24]. - Countries with lower Gini coefficients demonstrate the effectiveness of redistribution policies, with significant reductions in income inequality achieved through balanced tax and government spending strategies [25]. - China's current redistribution indicators suggest substantial potential for increasing investment in people and achieving effective outcomes [25].