GGII：2026年电池行业十大预测（上）

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is transitioning from an emotion-driven phase to a rational value-return cycle starting in 2026, following a strong recovery after a deep correction in 2025 [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - In 2026, the lithium battery market in China is expected to see a shipment volume exceeding 2.3 TWh, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 30%. The energy storage battery shipments are projected to surpass 850 GWh, with a growth rate exceeding 35% [7]. - The demand for energy storage is driven by independent market growth and supportive policies, leading to an increase in internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage stations, generally reaching 6-12% [7]. - The export of new energy vehicles is anticipated to approach 4 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of over 50% [9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand tension in the lithium battery industry is expected to persist in 2026, with top enterprises maintaining high order volumes and production schedules [10]. - The "anti-involution" policy is leading to a rational expansion of production capacity, with a projected increase in bidding orders by over 30% in 2026, although new capacities will primarily come online in 2027-2028 [11]. - Key material segments are dominated by leading companies, with a shortage of capacity in areas such as lithium iron phosphate and high-end anode products, exacerbating the tight balance in the industry [11]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Market Growth - The lithium battery industry is expected to add over 700 GWh of new capacity in 2026, primarily concentrated among top companies like CATL and BYD, which will drive the equipment market demand to exceed 65 billion yuan [13][14]. - The expansion of production capacity will directly contribute to a significant increase in the lithium battery equipment market, with strong demand for coating, stacking, and formation equipment [14]. Group 4: Price Trends - The lithium battery supply chain is projected to experience a simultaneous increase in volume and price, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices expected to stabilize above 120,000 yuan/ton, potentially reaching peaks above 150,000 yuan/ton [16]. - The price of copper foil is anticipated to exceed 120,000 yuan/ton, driven by rising copper prices and a tightening supply-demand situation for high-end copper foil [16]. - The price of electrolyte is expected to increase by 10-20% in 2026 due to tight supply conditions for upstream materials [18]. Group 5: Collaboration Between Large and Small Enterprises - The number of small and medium-sized enterprises engaging in contract manufacturing is expected to increase significantly in 2026, particularly in the fields of battery cells, phosphate, and anode materials [20]. - A competitive landscape is emerging where leading companies are vying for contract manufacturing resources due to their insufficient production capacity and expansion constraints [20].