Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that extreme high returns in the investment market are rare and often the result of luck rather than replicable strategies [6][7][9]. Group 1: Nature of Extreme Returns - Extreme high returns are small probability events and are often products of extreme luck rather than a reliable investment strategy [7][8]. - The majority of investors who achieve extraordinary returns are statistically similar to random chance, indicating that many so-called "investment gurus" are simply lucky [9]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article highlights that an investor's ability and effort determine the lower limit of investment success, while luck influences the upper limit [10]. - Successful investing requires a rigorous investment system, risk management, and emotional control, rather than solely chasing high returns [11]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - Unexpected excess returns in a well-structured asset allocation should be viewed as pleasant surprises rather than goals to pursue actively [12]. - Successful investors differentiate between planned returns and unexpected gains, maintaining their overall strategy despite occasional windfalls [13]. Group 4: Mindset Towards Investing - Investors should accept the uncertainty of outcomes and focus on improving their probability of success rather than trying to control every aspect of the investment process [14]. - Recognizing that market myths are often noise helps investors maintain a rational approach and focus on opportunities that align with their understanding and investment framework [15][16].
不要眼红极致的高收益,它跟我们没有半毛钱关系
雪球·2026-01-10 13:30