彭博：囤积商品的时代来临了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant paradigm shift in the commodity market driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns, leading to increased accumulation of strategic materials and a restructured pricing logic for gold due to "de-dollarization" [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Market Shift - Major economies are transitioning from a "just-in-time" supply chain model to a "just-in-case" accumulation strategy, focusing on building strategic reserves to mitigate risks from potential conflicts and supply disruptions [3][5]. - Countries are reportedly stockpiling significant amounts of oil, with estimates suggesting around 1.4 billion barrels, which could sustain supply for hundreds of days, exceeding the typical 90-day standard [3][6]. - Prices for critical military metals like tungsten and cobalt have surged, with projections indicating increases of 229% and 120% respectively by 2025 [3][7]. Group 2: Investment Implications - The shift in commodity dynamics suggests new investment opportunities, particularly in gold as a hedge against credit risk and in metals driven by national security demands [4][10]. - The global trend of "de-dollarization" is reshaping gold's pricing logic, with central banks aiming to increase gold reserves significantly, potentially pushing gold prices up by approximately $1,000 if certain reserve ratios are achieved [9][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards "hard assets," with defense stocks and commodity ETFs becoming attractive investment vehicles, as evidenced by the FTSE 100 index reaching 10,000 points, primarily driven by mining, oil, and defense sectors [10].