牛肉涨价，第一批“倒下”的会是谁？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced new import beef regulations, implementing country-specific quotas and additional tariffs starting January 1, 2026, for three years, which will significantly impact the beef market and trade dynamics in China [3]. Group 1: Impact on Import Beef Prices - Following the announcement, beef traders in Shanghai reported price increases of 2 to 3 yuan per pound for imported Brazilian beef within just a few days [5]. - Importers are rushing to stock up on beef before quotas are exhausted, with Brazil allocated 1.106 million tons, Argentina 511,000 tons, Uruguay 324,000 tons, and Australia and New Zealand approximately 200,000 tons each, totaling about 2.688 million tons for 2026 [5]. - The import volume of beef in China has already exceeded the total quota for 2026, leading to predictions that the quotas may be used up by mid-2026 [7]. Group 2: Changes in the Restaurant Sector - The rising costs of imported beef will challenge restaurants that rely on beef as a core ingredient, forcing them to reconsider their cost structures and ingredient choices [9]. - The market share of imported beef in China has increased from 20% in 2019 to approximately 30% in 2023, significantly impacting domestic beef prices, which have been declining [10]. - The average retail price of beef in major cities dropped to 36.82 yuan per pound by March 19, 2025, the lowest in six years, contributing to the growth of beef-related dining options [10]. Group 3: Future Adaptations in the Beef Supply Chain - The implementation of import beef regulations is expected to provide a window for domestic beef producers to adjust and innovate, as reliance on imports becomes less sustainable [12]. - The beef supply chain will face challenges in balancing cost and quality, while opportunities will arise for companies that can enhance supply chain resilience and innovate product offerings [12]. - The evolving consumer demand is shifting from mere availability to quality differentiation, prompting supply chain companies to focus on high-value beef and customized services [12].