光大证券研究·2026-01-11 00:02Market Overview - The China Convertible Bond Index increased by 4.45% during the week of January 5 to January 9, 2026, compared to a decrease of 0.27% the previous week. The overall index for the China Securities Market rose by 5.04% during the same period, up from a decline of 0.32% the week before [7]. - Since the beginning of 2026, the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by 4.45%, while the overall index has increased by 5.04% [7]. Rating Performance - The performance of bonds based on ratings showed that high-rated bonds (AAA) increased by 1.37%, medium-high rated bonds (AA+) by 2.50%, medium rated bonds (AA) by 5.16%, medium-low rated bonds (AA-) by 4.83%, and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) by 4.10%. The highest increase was seen in medium-rated bonds [8]. Size of Convertible Bonds - The performance of convertible bonds based on size indicated that large-scale bonds (over 2 billion) increased by 1.79%, medium-large bonds (1.5 to 2 billion) by 4.62%, medium-sized bonds (1 to 1.5 billion) by 5.06%, medium-small bonds (0.5 to 1 billion) by 4.21%, and small-scale bonds (under 0.5 billion) by 4.74%. The highest increase was in medium-sized bonds [8]. Price and Valuation Metrics - The average price of convertible bonds was 137.03 yuan, up from 132.33 yuan the previous week. The average conversion price was 104.54 yuan, an increase from 101.92 yuan, and the average conversion premium was 32.80%, up from 31.52% [9]. - As of January 9, 2026, there were 398 convertible bonds with a total balance of 5,515.01 billion yuan, down from 5,529.81 billion yuan the previous week [9]. Market Performance and Investment Direction - The convertible bond market and equity market both experienced gains, with the China Convertible Bond Index reaching a new high of 513.79 points since 2016. The current supply-demand dynamics suggest a strong influence from underlying stocks, indicating potential upward valuation [10]. - It is recommended to conduct detailed selection of bonds, considering bond terms and underlying stock conditions, while focusing on sectors with policy catalysts and high economic activity for investment opportunities [10].