Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) 经济观察报·2026-01-11 04:40Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of pig farming enterprises from passive risk management to active risk management through the establishment of professional futures teams and refined hedging operations in response to ongoing price pressures in the pig market [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the pig market faced significant challenges, with average prices significantly lower than in 2023 and 2024, reaching a low of 11 yuan/kg in October, leading to deep industry losses [2][4]. - The average price of lean pigs in 2025 was 13.80 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed throughout the year, particularly after mid-September when prices fell below the industry cost line [4]. - The overall pig farming industry has experienced four complete cycles of the "pig cycle" since 2006, with the current phase being the most painful "bottoming" stage of the fifth cycle [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the total pig output is expected to reach 747 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with pork production exceeding 60 million tons for the first time [5]. - The average PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) increased from 21 in 2024 to 26 in 2025, enhancing the supply capacity by 23.8% under the same breeding stock [5]. - Demand for pork is declining due to macroeconomic factors affecting consumer willingness, with traditional peak seasons seeing a 10%-15% year-on-year decrease in consumption [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Companies - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods reported a total sales volume of 77.981 million pigs in 2025, an increase of 6.379 million heads from 2024, but total sales revenue decreased by approximately 3.4 billion yuan due to lower average selling prices [6]. - The cost of pig farming is currently estimated to be between 12 and 13 yuan/kg, with top companies achieving lower costs through management advantages [4]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are increasingly adopting futures hedging as a critical strategy for risk management, moving away from traditional sales models that do not guarantee stable profits [8][9]. - Futures hedging has become a normalized part of operations, focusing on locking in profits rather than speculative trading [9][11]. - The implementation of futures contracts allows companies to stabilize their profits and manage risks effectively, as demonstrated by various companies' experiences in the market [10][12].