【广发宏观团队】五年规划首年名义增长易出现反弹？

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for nominal growth rebound in the first year of the five-year plan, highlighting historical patterns where such rebounds occurred in 2006, 2010, 2016, and 2021, with specific internal and external demand influences noted [1][2] - It suggests that the first year of a new five-year plan often sees concentrated investment in key projects, leading to increased fixed asset investment growth [2][3] - The article estimates that 2026 could be a moderate recovery phase for nominal growth, driven by low fixed asset investment in the previous year and clear targets for consumption rate improvement [3][4] Group 2 - Global stock markets, including A-shares, are experiencing broad gains, with traditional sectors showing valuation recovery and growth themes like commercial aerospace and AI technology leading the charge [5][10] - The article notes a significant increase in market sentiment, with the S&P 500 fear and greed index rising to 104.5, indicating a shift towards risk-on sentiment [6] - Commodity prices are influenced by geopolitical risks, with oil and precious metals seeing price increases, while copper prices have shown volatility [7][8] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization, with non-farm payrolls slightly below expectations but a decrease in the unemployment rate, which may affect Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [14][15] - The article highlights the potential for a significant reduction in effective tariff rates if the U.S. Supreme Court rules against the current administration's tariff powers [16][17] - The article discusses the ongoing adjustments in the domestic market, including the impact of seasonal factors on CPI and PPI, with expectations for a slight increase in CPI and a decrease in PPI [19][20] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of coordinated fiscal and financial policies to stimulate domestic demand, with specific measures aimed at enhancing consumer spending and supporting private investment [30][31] - It mentions the cancellation of VAT export rebates for solar products, indicating a shift in policy that may impact the solar industry [31] - The article also addresses the need for regulatory measures in the battery industry to prevent irrational competition and ensure sustainable development [32][27]