【策略周报】沪指站上4100点，如何把握春季行情？

Key Points Summary Important Events Review - On January 3, 2026, U.S. President Trump announced a military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, claiming they would face criminal charges in New York, and stated that the U.S. would "temporarily run" Venezuela [2] - The People's Bank of China held a work meeting on January 5-6, 2026, emphasizing the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to enhance financial services for high-quality economic development [2] - The Ministry of Finance announced plans for the issuance of government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, with a total planned scale of approximately 1.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy stance [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the regulations on sales fees for public securities investment funds, reducing costs for investors and shortening the redemption fee exemption period for institutional investors from six months to one month [2] Weekly Market Review - The bond market performed poorly due to significant capital diversion to the stock market, which saw indices surpass 4100 points, and the central bank's bond purchases were lower than expected, with December 2025 purchases at only 50 billion yuan [5] - The central bank's work meeting in 2026 reiterated the commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, indicating that while rate cuts are still possible, the extent and certainty are relatively low, which may weaken early-year rate cut expectations [6] - The A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the manufacturing PMI for December 2025 rebounding to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion and increasing market expectations for economic recovery [7]