国泰海通 · 晨报260112｜宏观、策略、机械

Macro Analysis - December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but rebounded to 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a steady recovery in inflation [3] - The main contribution to CPI came from the low base of food prices, with core inflation remaining stable at 1.2% year-on-year [3] - The rebound in gold prices was crucial for maintaining core inflation resilience, while the recovery of the PPI was mainly driven by non-ferrous metals [3] CPI and PPI Insights - Food price contributions increased, with overall food contributing +0.21% to CPI, while transportation and communication contributed -0.37% [5] - Core CPI remained at the seasonal upper limit, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and year-on-year stability [5] - PPI showed a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% but a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with industrial prices balancing across upstream and downstream sectors [5] AI Application Trends - The AI industry is expected to enter a phase of large-scale application, with significant growth in AI application products and diverse business models emerging [6][7] - China's AI paper publication ranks first globally, accounting for 23.2%, and the country leads in AI patent authorizations, providing a strong foundation for industrial development [7] - AI applications are transitioning from usable to highly effective, with the market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 35%, and the large model market potentially exceeding 63% [8] Investment Recommendations - The current AI industry revolution is characterized by a rotation between computing power and applications, with applications expected to become the core focus by 2026 [10] - Investment opportunities are identified in internet platform companies with user engagement and capital expenditure, vertical application companies in sectors like healthcare and finance, and domestic computing power and AIDC industry chains benefiting from increased capital expenditure [10]