国泰海通｜食饮：破局见成效，看多餐供——餐饮供应链跟踪报告

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant supply sector has passed its worst operational phase, with rational competition becoming a consensus. Under the momentum of new products, new channels, and new markets, leading companies are expected to emerge first, and the sector may experience a "Davis Double Play" due to low valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The restaurant supply industry has overcome its most challenging operational period, with competition gradually becoming more rational. Leading companies are making strides in new products, channels, and markets [2][3]. - The overall demand in the restaurant sector has been under pressure, leading to intensified competition. However, the marginal benefits from price competition have significantly decreased, indicating a shift towards rational competition [2][3]. - The profit margins in the sector showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, suggesting that the worst may be over. As the peak season approaches in Q4 2025 and January 2026, competition is expected to continue to ease [2][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The industry is seeking new growth through innovation in products, channels, and markets. There is a strong consensus that competition is easing, but future divergence will depend on demand recovery, market structure improvement, and the ability of new initiatives to generate significant incremental growth [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is on the rise, which may restore consumer confidence, and there is anticipation for more domestic demand stimulus policies. This could lead to a favorable environment for the sector [3]. - The current low valuation of the sector presents an opportunity for a "Davis Double Play" if performance exceeds expectations, especially as the new product and market cycles are expected to extend beyond a single quarter [3].