Core Viewpoint - The global shared mobility market is undergoing a critical transition from human-driven to automated services, exhibiting significant regional differentiation [4][9]. North America Market - The North American ride-hailing market is dominated by Uber and Lyft, creating a stable pricing power. In the Robotaxi sector, Waymo holds a monopoly while Tesla aggressively disrupts the market. Chinese Robotaxi companies face barriers due to a 2025 U.S. Department of Commerce ban on hardware and software, complicating their commercialization path [4][9][16]. European Market - The European regulatory environment is fragmented and stringent, with local automakers lagging in L4 algorithm development. This creates a unique "hybrid model" opportunity, where "U.S./local platforms + Chinese technology" could break through. Uber and Lyft's collaboration with Baidu Apollo indicates that de-branding technology output is a favorable solution for entering the European market [4][9][16]. Middle East Market - The Middle East presents a unique "three highs and one low" characteristic: high customer spending, high policy support, high infrastructure investment, and low energy costs. Gulf countries are eager to reduce oil dependency, viewing autonomous driving as a national strategy. Chinese companies like WeRide and Pony.ai benefit from dual advantages of road rights and licenses, making it an ideal training ground and commercialization area for overseas expansion [4][9][16]. Southeast Asia Market - The Southeast Asian ride-hailing market is large but has low customer spending. Low labor costs may lead to economic challenges for Robotaxi operations. In the short term, large-scale deployment of Robotaxis is not cost-effective, and two-wheeled vehicles remain mainstream. Singapore, with its high labor costs, may achieve Robotaxi commercialization [4][5][9]. Investment Focus - Focus on the L4 RoboX industry chain, prioritizing B-end software over C-end hardware. Recommended stocks include: - Hong Kong stocks: Xpeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, Pony.ai, WeRide, Cao Cao Mobility, and Black Sesame Technology - A-shares: Qianli Technology, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hirain - Downstream application-related stocks from the Robotaxi perspective include integrated models (Tesla, Xpeng Motors), technology providers with revenue-sharing models (Horizon, Baidu, Pony.ai, WeRide, Qianli Technology), and the transformation of ride-hailing/taxi services (Didi, Cao Cao Mobility, Ruqi Mobility, Dazhong Transportation, Jinjiang Online) [6][9]. Regulatory and Market Barriers - The regulatory landscape for Robotaxis abroad features a dual approach of support and regulation. Companies must assume clear accident liability and purchase sufficient liability insurance. Vehicles must have complete data recording capabilities and undergo third-party safety assessments. Operationally, there are restrictions on operational areas, fleet size, and speed [12][14]. Market Size and Growth - The North American shared mobility market is projected to grow significantly, with the total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) expected to reach billions by 2030. The European market also shows substantial potential, albeit with slower conversion rates. The Middle East is characterized by strong government support, while Southeast Asia presents a high-growth potential due to infrastructure gaps [21][22][27]. Pricing Dynamics - Pricing dynamics vary significantly across regions, influenced by local labor costs and regulatory environments. North America has high labor costs, allowing Robotaxis to survive without extreme price reductions. In contrast, Europe faces stringent labor protections that increase operational costs. The Middle East's pricing is shaped by government-led transportation strategies, while Southeast Asia's ultra-low fares are supported by low labor costs [33][34]. Profitability Disparities - Profitability varies significantly across countries, with developed regions showing higher absolute margins per Robotaxi. Revenue per vehicle in China, UAE, UK, and the US is estimated at approximately $40,000, $90,000, $250,000, and $250,000 respectively, with gross margins reflecting these disparities [34][35].
【重磅深度】全球Robotaxi商业化拐点将现,看好国内L4公司出海再扬帆