华创宏观WEI指数回升——每周经济观察第54期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators, including the performance of the macroeconomic WEI index, consumer demand, production levels, trade activities, and price movements in various commodities [2][3][4][25][36]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has risen to 6.05% as of January 4, up by 0.46 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. - In the first week of January, subway passenger volume in 26 cities increased by 6% year-on-year, while domestic flight operations averaged 12,400 flights per day, a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year [2][15]. - Container throughput at Chinese ports rebounded slightly, with a week-on-week increase of 6.3% as of January 5, and a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [2][25]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Real estate sales have seen a significant decline, with a 43% year-on-year drop in transaction area for commercial housing in 67 cities during the first ten days of January, compared to a 24% decline in December [3][16]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities fell to 0.45% as of January 4, down from 1.64% in December [3][16]. Group 3: Production Trends - Construction activity is declining, with cement shipment rates dropping to 29% as of January 2, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous week [3][18]. - The operating rate of asphalt plants also decreased to 25.4% as of January 7, down 2 percentage points week-on-week [3][18]. Group 4: Trade Activities - Container throughput at ports showed a slight rebound, with a week-on-week increase of 6.3% as of January 5, and a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [2][25]. - The number of outbound vessels from Chinese ports increased by 42.1% year-on-year in the first ten days of January [25]. Group 5: Price Movements - Prices of gold, copper, and oil have all risen, with COMEX gold reaching $4,473 per ounce (up 3.6%), LME copper at $12,990 per ton (up 3.8%), and Brent crude oil at $63.3 per barrel (up 4.3%) [2][36]. - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 15.6% in the same period [36].