热点思考 | 居者有其屋，昂贵的“美国梦”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. real estate market is in a downward cycle from 2024 to 2025, with potential for recovery in 2026 depending on stabilization in property sales and continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6]. Group 1: U.S. Real Estate Market Dynamics - The core contradiction in the U.S. real estate market is insufficient demand, with supply shortages being secondary. Despite a decline in mortgage rates since 2025, housing sales and investment remain weak, indicating a shift to a "buyer's market" [1][10][77]. - The average monthly cost of homeownership is $3,060, accounting for 43.2% of household income, significantly higher than the $2,227 monthly rental cost. This high cost is primarily due to elevated home prices and mortgage rates [2][19][69]. - To bring homeownership costs down to rental levels, mortgage rates would need to decrease from the current 6.2% to 3.7% [2][69]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates 1-2 times in 2026, but the downward potential for long-term Treasury yields is limited. The central tendency for the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to be around 4.0% by the end of 2026 [3][35][41]. - The relationship between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield suggests that even with Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates may not significantly decline, limiting the potential for improved housing demand [3][41][69]. Group 3: Trump's Real Estate Policy Initiatives - The Trump administration has proposed five key initiatives aimed at stimulating the real estate market, including transferable mortgages and a ban on large institutional purchases of single-family homes. However, the effectiveness of these measures is questioned [4][52][55]. - The proposed $200 billion MBS purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have a negligible impact on mortgage spreads, estimated to be less than 10 basis points [4][55][56]. - Long-term solutions to the housing crisis require increasing housing supply, but high construction costs and labor shortages pose significant challenges [4][56][65]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The U.S. real estate market is expected to show only weak recovery in 2026, with slight improvements in property sales as mortgage rates gradually decline. This may also positively impact exports of real estate-related goods from China to the U.S. [4][65][71].