【基础化工】商务部陆续出台对日管制措施，半导体材料国产替代紧迫性提升——行业周报（20260105-20260109）（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/周家诺）

Group 1 - The article highlights the urgency for domestic substitution of semiconductor materials due to recent export control measures imposed by the Ministry of Commerce on Japan, which includes a ban on dual-use items and an anti-dumping investigation on DCS, a key electronic chemical material for chip manufacturing [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and Japan are likely to escalate, increasing the probability of Japan retaliating with further export controls, which would heighten uncertainties in the domestic semiconductor supply chain [4] Group 2 - Global semiconductor sales are projected to grow significantly in 2025, driven by demand from AI computing, data centers, and smart driving, with an expected sales figure of approximately $687.4 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [5] - The production capacity for 12-inch wafers is expected to reach 11.1 million pieces per month by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7% from 2024 to 2028, while advanced process capacity (7nm and below) is anticipated to grow from 850,000 to 1.4 million pieces per month, with a CAGR of 14% [5] Group 3 - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is rapidly increasing due to the needs of data centers and AI processors, leading to a significant rise in semiconductor material consumption [6] - The global semiconductor materials market is expected to reach approximately $70 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6%, and is projected to exceed $87 billion by 2029 [6] - In China, the market for key materials is forecasted to reach 174.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 21.1% [6]