【有色】TC现货价创历史新低，铜精矿现货延续紧张——铜行业周报（20260105-20260109）（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement despite current demand pressures [4]. Supply and Demand - As of January 9, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,410 CNY/ton, up 3.23% from January 2, while LME copper closed at 12,998 USD/ton, up 4.31% [4]. - The TC spot price has hit a record low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [4]. - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 14.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.5% [5]. - The copper supply from China in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Inventory Levels - Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 640,000 tons as of January 9, 2026, down 0.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 838,000 tons, up 6.2% from December 31 [5]. Smelting and Processing - The TC spot price was -45.1 USD/ton as of January 9, 2026, marking a historical low [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in December 2025 was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [7]. Demand Trends - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a weekly operating rate of 56.58%, down 2.37 percentage points [9]. - Air conditioning production, representing about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline by 11.4% in January to March 2026 [9]. Futures Market - As of January 9, 2026, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.8% week-on-week, with a total of 189,000 contracts [10]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 58,000 contracts, down 3.3% from the previous week [10].