【电新环保】重点关注国产算力、氢能、储能上游——电新环保行业周报20260111（殷中枢/郝骞/陈无忌/和霖/邓怡亮）

Overall Viewpoint - This week, there were multiple supply-side events in the new energy sector: (1) Four ministries held a symposium on power and energy storage battery industries to regulate industry competition; (2) The "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector was influenced by market information, leading to a continuous decline in polysilicon futures; (3) Export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be canceled starting April 1, 2026, while battery product export tax rates will gradually decrease to a cancellation by 2027. The new energy industry's "anti-involution" is inherently complex and challenging, with the state aiming to maintain international competitiveness. Balancing market and policy adjustments will evolve accordingly. Therefore, the direction of the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" will not change, focusing more on execution coordination and method restructuring; the battery industry is more about preventive reminders against energy storage battery oversupply; the adjustment of export tax rebate policies is expected to optimize the supply side, potentially leading to a short-term export rush [4]. Investment Perspective - (1) Market enthusiasm is currently focused on commercial aerospace and space computing, with wind power stocks such as Goldwind Technology, Taisheng Wind Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy, as well as photovoltaic stocks like Junda Co., Oriental Sunrise, and Maiwei Co., having accumulated significant price increases, detaching from their core business fundamentals, making it inadvisable to chase high prices at this time [4]. - (2) AI power: There is optimism regarding domestic computing power demand rebounding after the NVIDIA H200 release; the HVDC solution is expected to ramp up, and SST technology and collaboration progress are likely to materialize; this can also align with AI applications to form sector rotation; the capital expenditure situation for North American data centers in 2027 needs to be assessed during the US stock annual report period for risk evaluation [4]. - (3) During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, based on the dual benefits of China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff in 2026, there is optimism for the coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol [5]. - (4) For energy storage/lithium battery upstream: The overall game on the lithium battery demand side is focused on domestic energy storage bidding in 2026; data on energy storage and vehicle terminals still need to be tracked, making it difficult to confirm or refute; the investment ranking for lithium battery materials is: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode; lithium carbonate prices still have upward momentum in the short term [5].