中金 • 全球研究 | 德国财政扩张效果：早期数据的成色——欧洲经济全景Q4 2025

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the European economy is expected to show unexpected resilience in 2025, with a continued recovery in domestic demand driven by policy support in 2026, particularly focusing on the effects of fiscal expansion in Germany [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Fiscal Policy - In 2025, Germany's government initiated a crucial fiscal transformation amid a backdrop of low growth, with GDP significantly lagging behind other developed economies due to structural challenges like energy costs [4]. - Private consumption and fixed capital formation have seen a decline in their contributions to GDP growth, dropping from pre-pandemic averages of 0.8% and 0.6% to recent figures of 0.2% and -0.5% respectively [4]. - Industrial production has been on a downward trend since peaking in 2018, with significant declines in sectors such as automotive, basic metals, and machinery [4][8]. Group 2: Recent Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, fiscal policy outcomes were below expectations, leading to weak economic momentum, with Q2 showing negative growth and Q3 stagnating [13]. - The IFO business climate index weakened post-Q3, while the ZEW economic expectations index showed slight recovery but remained below Q2 levels [13]. - Private consumption weakened in Q3, although government consumption accelerated, and fixed capital formation began contributing positively to GDP growth [13][19]. Group 3: Industrial Production and Orders - By November 2025, industrial production showed signs of improvement, particularly in construction, with a 1% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [23]. - Domestic orders saw significant recovery, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 17% in October and November respectively, marking the highest levels since January 2022 [30]. - The increase in domestic orders was primarily driven by sectors such as other transport equipment and metal products, reflecting ongoing defense spending [30]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Market expectations for Germany's growth in 2026 remain cautious, with Bloomberg forecasting a real GDP growth of around 1%, similar to pre-fiscal shift levels [34]. - The German government has initiated structural reforms aimed at boosting potential growth, although the actual impact of these reforms is still to be observed [34].