从业 43 年的程序员直言：AI 不会取代程序员，软件开发的核心从未改变

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that AI will not replace software developers, emphasizing that the future of software development remains in the hands of developers who can translate ambiguous human thoughts into precise computational logic [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - The prediction that "programmers will be replaced" has never come true throughout the history of computing, which spans over 43 years [3]. - The author has witnessed multiple technological revolutions, each heralded as the end of programmers, such as the rise of Visual Basic and low-code platforms [4][6]. - Historical cycles show that each wave of technology has led to an increase in the number of programs and programmers, exemplifying the "Jevons Paradox" with a market size of $1.5 trillion [9]. Group 2: Differences with Current Technology - The current wave of Large Language Models (LLMs) differs significantly from past technologies in scale and impact, with LLMs not reliably improving development speed or software reliability [10][11]. - Unlike previous technologies that provided stable and reliable solutions, LLMs often slow down development and create a dual loss situation unless real bottlenecks are addressed [11]. Group 3: Essence of Programming - The core challenge of programming has always been converting vague human ideas into logical and precise computational expressions, a difficulty that persists regardless of the programming tools used [12][17]. - The complexity of programming lies not in the syntax but in understanding what needs to be achieved, a challenge that remains unchanged over decades [17][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - AI will not eliminate the need for programmers; instead, the demand for skilled developers will continue to grow, especially as companies realize the true costs and limitations of AI technologies [19][20]. - The future of software development will likely see AI playing a supportive role, assisting in tasks like prototype code generation, while the critical decision-making and understanding will still rely on human developers [19][20].