10W！或是美国降息的就业分水岭

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak employment growth in the U.S. for December 2025, highlighting a significant decline in non-farm payrolls and the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, while analyzing the contributing factors and implications for monetary policy [2][4][24]. Employment Data Summary - Non-farm payrolls for December 2025 increased by only 50,000, below the expected 70,000, with private sector jobs rising by 37,000 against an expectation of 75,000. The previous two months' data were revised downwards by a total of 76,000 [2][24]. - Employment growth was primarily concentrated in education and healthcare services (+41,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), while sectors like retail, construction, and manufacturing saw job losses [2][26]. Unemployment Rate Analysis - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4% from a previous 4.5%, with labor force participation decreasing slightly from 62.46% to 62.40%. This decline was attributed to job growth and a slight contraction in labor supply [2][30]. - The household survey indicated an increase in total employment by 232,000, with a decrease in unemployment by 78,000, reflecting a complex labor market dynamic [30][33]. Wage and Hourly Earnings Insights - Private sector hourly wage growth met expectations, rising by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, while weekly hours worked decreased from 34.3 to 34.2, remaining at historically low levels [2][35]. - The stability in weekly earnings suggests a lack of growth despite the increase in hourly wages, indicating potential underlying weaknesses in labor demand [35]. Market Reaction and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the employment report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with futures pricing indicating a reduction from 2.266 to 2.087 cuts expected this year, with the first anticipated in June and the second in December [3][37]. - U.S. stock markets experienced slight gains, while bond yields remained stable, reflecting a cautious optimism in response to the employment data [3][37]. Structural Factors Affecting Employment - The article identifies several structural factors contributing to weak employment growth, including federal government layoffs (approximately 28,000 jobs), tightening immigration policies (around 33,000 jobs), and potential layoffs due to AI (estimated at 6,500 jobs per month) [4][10][21]. - The remaining employment weakness, estimated at 48,000 jobs, is attributed to a general decline in labor demand, influenced by restrictive monetary policy and fiscal tightening [21][23]. Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - A monthly job growth of around 100,000 is seen as a critical threshold for assessing Federal Reserve policy direction. If job growth stabilizes at this level, it may reduce the need for further rate cuts [6][23]. - The article suggests that if employment continues to grow steadily, the Fed may pause rate cuts, while rapid recovery above 100,000 jobs could eliminate the necessity for further reductions [6][23].