“申”度解盘 | 春季行情的高潮

Market Overview - In December 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rebound, closing at 3968.84 points, up 2.06% from the end of November 2025. The average daily trading volume decreased by 4.1% to 774.1 billion yuan [5][6]. - The CSI 300 Index also rebounded in December, closing at 4629.94 points, with a 2.28% increase. The average daily trading volume fell by 8% to 426.5 billion yuan [5][6]. January Market Analysis and Outlook Fundamental Drivers - The PMI index returned to the expansion zone in December 2025, with a manufacturing PMI of 50.1%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economic fundamentals after nine months [7]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index fell to 5.57 at the end of December, ending a two-month upward trend. This suggests potential for further decline in risk premium, contingent on clear signals of fundamental improvement [9]. Market Profitability - The number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% increased to 357 in December, a 64% rise from the previous month, indicating a resurgence in market profitability [11]. Volume-Price Relationship - The relationship between volume and price remains crucial for sustaining upward trends, as both experienced a rebound in December despite lower trading volumes [13]. Average Transaction Price - The average transaction price on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached a new high of 16.58 yuan per share, influenced by the listing of high-priced new stocks [15]. Major Market Index Predictions Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue its rebound, fluctuating around the 60-day moving average, with significant support established at previous market highs [17]. CSI 300 Index - The CSI 300 Index is also anticipated to challenge previous highs, with resistance levels identified at the range of the second half of 2021 [19].