解读印尼镍政策调整，如何看待接下来的镍价走势？

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in Indonesia's nickel mining quota and management policies have become the central driving force in the global nickel market, reflecting a strategic shift in resource control, fiscal demands, and industrial upgrades [4][5]. Group 1: Indonesia's Fiscal Situation and Non-Tax Revenue - Indonesia's fiscal expenditure model has been characterized by "growth driven by investment, stability maintained by subsidies, and development funded by deficits," with infrastructure spending prioritized at over 15% of the national budget during Jokowi's administration [5][6]. - The government's long-term energy subsidies have created a heavy fiscal burden, especially during periods of social unrest or high global energy prices, with social spending initiatives further increasing fiscal pressure [5][6]. - Non-tax revenue, particularly from resource-related royalties, plays a crucial role in the fiscal structure, accounting for 27%-30% of total revenue, with the nickel industry increasingly contributing to this segment [6]. Group 2: Nickel Mining RKAB Policy Adjustments - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to significantly reduce the nickel mining RKAB quota for 2026 from an expected 379 million tons to around 250 million tons, creating strong market expectations for mid-term supply tightness [7]. - The approval process for RKAB has been restructured to enhance government control over resource outflow, with a shift back to annual approvals from a previous three-year cycle [8]. - The royalty rates for nickel mining have been increased to a floating rate linked to LME nickel prices, raising mining costs and providing solid support for nickel prices [8]. Group 3: Drivers Behind Policy Adjustments - Fiscal pressure is the most immediate driver for these policy changes, as the government faces funding demands from major projects like the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway and the new capital city, Nusantara [9][10]. - The depletion of high-grade nickel resources and the prevalence of illegal mining, which accounts for about 30% of total supply, necessitate stricter controls to enhance revenue and environmental governance [10][11]. - Indonesia aims to upgrade its industrial chain by moving beyond being a mere supplier of raw materials, encouraging local processing of nickel into higher-value products [11]. Group 4: Expected Discrepancies - The efficiency of the RKAB approval process has improved, but actual production often falls short of approved quotas, typically at 70%-80% of the approved amount [12]. - The Philippines is expected to increase its nickel exports, potentially alleviating regional supply tightness, but global nickel markets still face structural oversupply with high inventory levels [13]. - Future adjustments to Indonesia's RKAB quotas may lead to significant supply-demand imbalances, with potential shortfalls projected based on historical production ratios [14]. Group 5: Outlook - Indonesia's nickel policies are reshaping the global supply landscape with a more stringent and refined approach, driving price volatility and establishing a new support level around $18,000 per ton in the LME market [14][15]. - The market should closely monitor the final approval results for RKAB in early 2026, the implementation details of the new resource tax system, and trends in inventory changes [14].