关键变量是货币！达利欧最新复盘2025，预计美股长期回报或仅4.7%……︱重阳荐文

Group 1 - The core narrative of 2025 revolves around two main lines: the fluctuation of currency values, particularly the US dollar, other fiat currencies, and gold; and the relative underperformance of US stocks compared to non-US equities and gold, with gold being the best-performing asset of the year [2][7] - The article emphasizes that almost all fiat currencies weakened throughout the year, with the US dollar declining by 4% against the yuan and 12% against the euro, while gold saw a return of 65% in USD terms, outperforming the S&P 500's 18% return by 47 percentage points [9][11] - The article outlines three key principles related to currency depreciation, wealth distribution, and the nominal versus real returns of bonds, highlighting that currency devaluation can inflate nominal returns while diluting real purchasing power [12][14] Group 2 - US stocks, while strong in USD terms, significantly lagged behind non-US markets and gold when measured in stronger currencies, with European stocks outperforming US stocks by 23% and emerging market stocks returning 34% [18][19] - The S&P 500's performance was driven by a 12% growth in corporate earnings and a 5% increase in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, with the "seven giants" of the index accounting for a third of its market value and achieving a 22% earnings growth [19][20] - Long-term expected returns for stocks are estimated at around 4.7%, with current bond returns at approximately 4.9%, indicating a very thin equity risk premium and suggesting limited potential for additional returns from equities [21][22] Group 3 - The political landscape, particularly under the Trump administration, has influenced market dynamics, with policies aimed at revitalizing US manufacturing and AI technology, which have contributed to the observed market changes [29][30] - The shift from multilateralism to unilateralism in global politics has increased conflict risks and military spending, while also driving demand for gold and reducing overseas demand for US debt and assets [35] - The article concludes that the evolution of key forces such as debt, currency, market dynamics, domestic politics, geopolitical factors, natural forces, and new technologies will shape the overall investment landscape moving forward [37]