三国演义，存储市场硝烟已起

Core Insights - The performance of AI is heavily influenced by the capabilities of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with leading companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron dominating the market [2][5][10] - The upcoming years (2026-2028) will be crucial for these companies as their strategic decisions will significantly impact the evolution of the global AI industry [2] HBM Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, SK Hynix surpassed Samsung for the first time in market share, holding approximately 36% of the global DRAM market, while Samsung held 34% and Micron 25% [5] - This shift is indicative of a broader industry transformation centered around HBM technology [5] - SK Hynix's success is attributed to its early investments in HBM technology and its ability to supply DRAM products effectively [7] Technological Advancements - HBM technology offers two major advantages: extremely high bandwidth (up to several tens of times that of traditional DDR memory) and high energy efficiency, which is critical for AI computing [7] - Samsung is responding to competitive pressures by accelerating its HBM production, planning to increase its monthly capacity by nearly 50% by 2026 [10][15] Competitive Strategies - Samsung aims to regain market share from SK Hynix by leveraging its extensive manufacturing capabilities and aiming for a significant increase in HBM production [10][15] - The competition is intensifying as both SK Hynix and Samsung plan to start HBM4 production in Q1 2026, which will shift the balance of power in the market [27][28] Pricing Trends - The price of HBM4 is expected to rise significantly, with SK Hynix's agreements indicating a more than 50% increase compared to HBM3E [22] - This price increase reflects the complex manufacturing processes and the current supply-demand imbalance in the high-end memory market [22] Future Outlook - The global HBM market is projected to reach $60 billion by 2026, with a potential market size of around $100 billion by 2030 [22] - The competition among SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron will drive technological advancements and cost reductions in the HBM sector, benefiting the broader AI industry [29]