【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】赚钱效应扩散尚不充分

Core Viewpoint - The spring market is characterized by a continuous favorable time window for bullish investments, with a significant increase in risk appetite and no major downside risks anticipated [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The spring season is expected to see a sustained increase in market participation, driven by factors such as ETF inflows, insurance sector performance, and foreign capital repatriation [3]. - The absence of major economic downturn risks in January creates a typical favorable time window for investments, with February and March presenting additional opportunities for market rebounds and policy catalysts [3]. - The current overall profit-making effect in the A-share market is slightly above the historical median, indicating room for further expansion in profit-making opportunities [3]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Industry themes such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and nuclear fusion are identified as having the strongest profit-making potential, with venture capital financing marking a turning point for pricing in the primary market [8]. - The insurance and brokerage sectors are already realizing their potential due to mid-term bull market expectations, while policy themes related to consumer services and Hainan are expected to provide rotation clues [8]. - The AI industry chain is currently viewed as having weaker beta, with short-term opportunities primarily arising from thematic cues in the TMT sector [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Indicators - The sentiment indicators show a strong upward momentum, with the overall A-share market demonstrating a positive trend in profit-making effects across various sectors [10][11]. - Specific sectors such as defense, non-ferrous metals, and electronics are experiencing significant profit-making effect expansions, with percentages indicating continued growth [11][12]. - The market is expected to enter a phase of policy and technological validation in the second quarter of 2026, with a potential confirmation of a new trading range for A-shares [3][8].