美国股债长期相关性转负有赖于通胀维持低位

Global Market Overview - The US labor market remains resilient, with expectations of fiscal and monetary easing supporting precious metals during the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing phase. Geopolitical tensions in Iran and increased sanctions on Russian oil are expected to drive oil prices significantly higher [2][9]. - In fixed income, the 10-year US Treasury yield recorded 4.18%, down 1 basis point this week, while the US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.1. [2][9]. - In equity markets, South Korea, Vietnam, and Germany saw significant stock market gains, while the A-share index, excluding Hong Kong, rose across the board, with the Sci-Tech 50, CSI 1000, and North Star 50 indices leading in gains. Conversely, Argentina and India experienced notable declines [2][9]. - In commodities, gold prices increased by 3.68%, and geopolitical risks led to a 3.74% rise in oil prices this week [2][9]. Focus on US Stock-Bond Correlation - The long-term correlation between US stocks and bonds has turned negative, relying on sustained low inflation. Since 2025, the correlation has shown a slight decline from high levels. If oil prices remain low, US inflation is expected to stay low in 2026, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain room for rate cuts. The rolling three-year correlation between US stocks and bonds is anticipated to continue declining, improving the hedging effect of bonds against stocks [2][14]. - However, geopolitical factors, such as escalating tensions in the Middle East and new sanctions on Russian oil, could lead to a significant rise in oil prices, potentially keeping the stock-bond correlation high and undermining the hedging effectiveness of bonds [2][14]. Global Fund Flows - In the past week, global funds saw a significant outflow of $12.07 billion from US equity funds, while $14.18 billion flowed into US fixed income funds. Additionally, there was a continued inflow of funds into the Chinese stock market. Notably, there was a significant outflow from Chinese fixed income funds, with a marked inflow into the FTSE 3x Short China ETF [3]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 9, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded that of the S&P 500 and France's CAC 40, reaching 93.2% of the past decade's levels. However, in absolute terms, the valuations of the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index remain significantly lower than those of US stocks [4][22]. - From an ERP perspective, the ERP percentiles for Brazil's São Paulo, CSI 300, and the Shanghai Composite remain high, indicating that the Chinese stock market still offers good allocation value compared to global markets [4][22]. Risk-Adjusted Returns - As of January 9, 2026, the risk-adjusted return percentiles for the S&P 500 rose to 60%, while the Nasdaq's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 37% to 46%. The CSI 300's risk-adjusted return percentile decreased from 94% to 91%. The risk-adjusted return percentile for GSCI precious metals remains at 100% [24][22]. Market Sentiment Indicators - In the US market, the S&P 500 is above its 20-day moving average, with a decrease in the put-call ratio compared to the previous week. In the A-share market, the options market shows a significant increase in positions for the 4750-5000 range of the CSI 300, alongside a notable rise in implied volatility, indicating that the market is pricing in an upward trend for A-shares [26][36].