Toyota(US:TM) 日经中文网·2026-01-12 08:00Core Viewpoint - Japanese automakers are experiencing a decline in sales in China, but the expansion of electric vehicle (EV) product lines is stabilizing the downward trend for some companies, particularly Toyota, which is showing signs of recovery in new car sales [4][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Toyota's new car sales in China for 2025 are projected to be 1,780,400 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The luxury brand Lexus is expected to sell 182,000 units, up 0.7% year-on-year [4]. - Nissan's sales are forecasted at 653,024 units, down 6% year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive year of decline, although the decrease is less severe than the 12% drop in 2024 [4]. - Honda's sales are expected to be 645,345 units, reflecting a 24% year-on-year decline, continuing a five-year downward trend [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China is robust, with local giants like BYD continuing to see sales growth. Japanese automakers, which have primarily focused on fuel vehicles, are lagging in the NEV sector [4]. - The market share of Chinese brands in the passenger car segment has increased from 38% in 2020 to 70% in the first 11 months of 2025, while Japanese brands' share has decreased from 23% to 10% [4]. Group 3: Product Line Expansion - Starting in 2025, three Japanese automakers are significantly expanding their NEV product lines, with signs of sales recovery emerging. Toyota plans to launch the pure electric SUV "bZ3X" through its local joint venture GAC Toyota in March 2025 [5]. - Toyota's EV sales are expected to surge by 86% year-on-year, reaching 109,300 units in 2025, with the sedan "bZ7" set to launch in spring 2026 [5].